
Paraná's state agriculture secretariat forecasts a 2017/18 summer grain harvest of 23 million tons, down 9% from last year. Soybean yields have already fallen 2% in the west after excess rain, and planting was delayed by drought before heavy rains.
A 9% drop in Paraná output, the state's soybean crop falling to 19.4 million tons, tightens Brazilian supplies and supports soybean and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.