
High Plains harvest was delayed by late replanting, hail and heat, but yields improved over the prior year. Some dryland corn fields made 80 to 120 bushels per acre, while central Kansas soybeans were hit hard by heat in mid-August.
Improved High Plains yields relative to last year add to supply comfort for corn and sorghum, while soybean heat damage is a modest offset.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.