
AgRural data showed Brazil's soybean harvest at 2.2% complete as of January 19, ahead of last year and the five-year average, with Mato Grosso leading at 7.5%. Rains have slowed harvesting in parts of central Brazil, and AgRural forecast Brazilian soybean output at 103.1 million tonnes.
A large, early-progressing Brazilian soybean crop adds export supply during the Northern Hemisphere off-season, which pressures soybean and meal prices. Harvest delays from rain are a minor offset but do not change the overall bearish supply picture.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.