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South American soybean output is projected at 6,887 million bushels, up 6% from last season, but below earlier forecasts. Brazil is near a record crop while Argentina faces its worst harvest in more than two decades, both due to La Niña.
The authors expect a larger South American crop plus a possibly larger U.S. crop to push prices down.
A large South American supply, particularly Brazil's record crop, adds export competition and weighs on soybean prices. Argentina's shortfall partly offsets the gain in regional volume.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoApr 1, 2023After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
