
Midwest corn and soybean harvests are reported to be on track for near-record levels despite flooding, drought and disease pressure this season. Some Illinois corn yields are below expectations because of tar spot and other diseases, while soybean yields are strong.
USDA issued a natural disaster designation for counties in Illinois on October 20.
Near-record output of corn and soybeans adds to global supply and tends to pressure prices. Disease losses in corn and disaster aid are partial offsets that keep the effect from being fully bearish.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.