
Argentine soybean and corn harvests accelerated after drier weather, with soybeans 14.5% harvested by 23 April, 11 points behind last year. Farmers are eager to sell to raise cash for debts and free storage space.
Faster harvesting and farmer selling add near-term export and crush supply, a mildly bearish factor for soybean and corn prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.