
Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, which together supply over half of world soybeans, are expecting smaller harvests after severe drought since November. Conab cut Brazil's soybean estimate to 4,610 million bushels, down 9.2% from last year.
CBOT soybean futures reached nine-year highs in February.
Combined South American shortfalls remove a large share of export supply, tightening world soy, meal and corn balances and supporting prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.