
Sorriso (Mato Grosso), Rio Verde (Goiás) and Luís Eduardo Magalhães (Bahia) recorded no rainfall over the previous seven days. The dryness raises concern about soil moisture ahead of the expected October soybean planting window.
A delayed Brazilian soybean planting would push the safrinha corn crop into a riskier period, raising supply risk for global oilseeds and corn and supporting prices. Markets are likely to price in the risk premium if dryness persists into September.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.