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The IRI April climate briefing reports that equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have warmed from La Niña into neutral territory, with the Niño3.4 anomaly averaging -0.28ºC over four weeks. Subsurface waters are also warming, and models suggest this warmth will reach the surface in coming months.
A shift from La Niña to neutral reduces the odds of drought-prone conditions in key South American and other exporting regions, a modestly bearish factor for grain and oilseed risk premiums over the coming months.
iri.columbia.eduApr 30, 2018After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
