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The IRI September climate briefing reports that central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have continued to cool, with weekly anomalies between -0.6C and -0.2C, approaching La Nina levels. Atmospheric and sub-surface ocean indicators also point toward possible La Nina, and NOAA's CPC upgraded its ENSO status to a La Nina Watch.
A developing La Nina raises the risk of dry conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil during the coming South American growing season, which could tighten soybean, corn and meal supplies and support prices. Its effect on the US crop is expected to be limited, since the event is not expected to last into the US growing season.
iri.columbia.eduSep 28, 2017After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
