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IRI reported that tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures in mid-August were near the threshold for weak La Niña. Its model runs give a 55-60% probability of weak La Niña for the September-November through November-January seasons, and the official ENSO forecast now carries a La Niña watch.
Rising La Niña odds point to dry risk for South American crops and a possible shift in US and Canadian growing conditions, which supports prices for corn, soybeans and wheat.
iri.columbia.eduAug 20, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
