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The IRI July climate briefing reports that equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region have kept warming, averaging +0.35C over four weeks. Subsurface waters suggest El Niño could be imminent, but winds have not yet shifted to reinforce it, and an El Niño Watch remains in effect.
A developing El Niño raises the risk of drought in key exporters such as Australia, southern Africa and India, and can tighten grain and oilseed supply, supporting prices for corn, wheat and soybeans.
iri.columbia.eduJul 30, 2018After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
