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IRI's December climate briefing says El Niño-like ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific have persisted since late September 2018, with the Niño3.4 anomaly at 1.0°C, but the atmosphere has not fully joined in. The atmosphere has become less El Niño-like over the past month, leaving the outlook uncertain.
Uncertainty over whether El Niño will fully develop keeps weather risk premium in grain and oilseed markets, since a strong event could cut output in Southeast Asia and Australia.
iri.columbia.eduJan 3, 2019After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
