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The IRI December briefing reports that Nino3.4 sea-surface temperatures have held near -0.8C, a weak La Niña state. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and IRI expect these conditions to persist, and the ENSO alert was upgraded to a La Niña Advisory.
A persistent La Niña raises the risk of dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil, which can cut South American soybean and corn output and support prices for soy meal and corn.
iri.columbia.eduDec 27, 2017After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
