
Brazil's safrinha (second-crop) corn is being planted later than normal because the soybean harvest was delayed by irregular rains in late 2019. About 80% of projected area was planted in south-central Brazil by early March, and Mato Grosso is nearly finished.
Late planting exposes the crop to dryness and frost during pollination and grain filling, so yield risk rises. If planting proceeds as planned, output near 73 million tons would be a bullish-to-neutral supply signal for corn exports that can cap prices.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.