
Soybeans rose modestly on short covering and technical buying as dry weather and derecho damage stressed key growing areas. Chinese buyers booked 400,000 tonnes of new crop U.S. beans, and China bought 8.18 million tonnes of Brazilian beans in July.
Dryness in U.S. growing areas raises supply risk for the new crop, while new-crop Chinese demand supports prices. Heavy Brazilian competition for Chinese business limits the upside.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Short covering, technical buying, dry weather and 400,000 tonnes of Chinese new-crop purchases supported soybeans on Aug 26.