CBOT March soymeal hit a new high of $496.50 per short ton after gaining $23 for the week. Drought in Argentina has cut soybean production potential, with output on track for its lowest level since 2008/09.
The USDA cut its Argentine production outlook, and the forecast remains hot and dry.
Argentina is the largest soymeal and soyoil exporter, so a sharp crop shortfall tightens global meal supply and supports prices for feed buyers.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.