
AgRural reported Brazil's soybean harvest at 31% by February 20, behind last year's 45% but ahead of the previous week. Dry weather since late January is cutting yields in Rio Grande do Sul, which AgRural has cut twice, and further reductions are expected in March.
National soybean output is still forecast at a record 125.6 million tonnes.
Dryness in Rio Grande do Sul and a delayed soybean harvest put pressure on second-crop corn planting timing and reduce supply from the South. Strong national soybean forecasts limit upside in soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.