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Argentina's core grain belt is seeing better rainfall in November than in many recent years, but La Nina remains in place. Soybean planting was 32% complete and is expected to near 90% by late December.
The probability of truly good yields during La Nina is only about one in ten.
Timely November rain eases planting stress, which partly offsets La Nina's drought risk. Yield concerns remain, so the market stays supported but with less urgency.
brecorder.comReutersNov 24, 2021After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
