
AgRural reports Brazil soybeans 86% planted as of late last week, versus 77% on average, with planting essentially complete in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Rio Grande do Sul, with about 15% of acreage, and northeastern Brazil remain to be planted.
A frontal system is expected to bring rain to Rio Grande do Sul.
Rapid planting progress points to a larger Brazilian crop and reduces weather premium, which is bearish for soybeans and meal.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.