
DATAGRO says Brazilian farmers had planted 24.4% of their 2021/22 soybeans by the end of the week of October 15, against 9.2% a year earlier and a 15.8% average. Rio Verde in southern Goias reached 50% planted after recent rains improved soil moisture.
Rapid planting supports good yield prospects and timely safrinha corn planting, which reduces the supply risk premium in soybeans and corn.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.