
Analysts say La Nina is not expected to repeat last year's disaster in Brazil's corn crop. NOAA put an 87% chance on La Nina persisting through December-February, and Brazil's soybean planting is running fast with plentiful rain.
Safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be on time.
A normal Brazilian safrinha crop after last year's 15% drop would expand export supplies and weigh on corn and soy prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.