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CBOT soybeans, corn and wheat fell on Monday as WTI crude dropped nearly 8% to $82.30 per barrel after the US-Iran pause in attacks. Forecasts of one to two inches of rain across much of the Corn Belt over the next week added bearish pressure.
MARS cut its EU corn and soft wheat yield estimates.
Expected Corn Belt rainfall reduces weather risk premium in the US crop, and lower crude removes biofuel support. EU yield cuts provide only partial offset.
producer.comPhil Franz-WarkentinJul 27, 2026After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 17 past bearish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.9%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude fell nearly 8% and forecasts of 1-2 inches of Corn Belt rain added bearish crop-supply pressure on Monday, partly offset by the MARS EU corn yield cut.
