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Conab projects Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop at 178 million tonnes, up 6.5 million from the prior cycle, citing favorable weather. Harvest had reached 17% of planted area, and Mato Grosso yields were close to initial estimates, though overall grain yields are slightly lower.
A large Brazilian soybean crop expands global export supply and weighs on soybean and meal prices. The forecast also points to a record national grain output.
world-grain.comJohn ReidyFeb 13, 2026After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, SBM moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
