
Rains have helped Goias, Brazil, where about 20% of the 2018/19 soybean area was planted by mid-October, well ahead of 2017 when planting was under 5%. Planting is concentrated in the Center-South and forecasts call for further rain.
Timely planting in a major Brazilian soybean state supports expectations of a larger crop, which is mildly bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.