
A FAPESP-supported study led by Unicamp's Nepam warns that climate change could bring extreme droughts to Brazil's main farming regions. These droughts could hit the safrinha second corn harvest, grown January to April in the Center-South.
The findings were presented at a June 16 online seminar.
A drought-hit safrinha crop would tighten Brazilian corn export supplies and support global corn and feed-grain prices. The effect is a long-term risk rather than a current supply shock.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.