
A wetter, cooler forecast for the Midwest and Plains is expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to much of the Corn Belt, including Illinois and Iowa. Drought has expanded in major corn and soybean areas, putting USDA's high yield forecasts at risk.
Forecast rains could ease pressure on crops and limit price gains, but the drought expansion keeps yield risk in the market and supports corn and soybean values.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.