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The most intense drought since 2012 deepened over the past week across the U.S. Midwest farm belt, reducing soil moisture. It threatens yield potential in the heaviest corn and soybean production areas, though forecast rains offer some relief.
Yield risk in the core Corn Belt supports corn and soybean prices, with forecast rain limiting the upside if it materializes. Lower corn output also tightens feed grain supplies for buyers.
reuters.comKarl PlumeJun 29, 2023After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On 6/29 the Midwest drought deepened to its most intense since 2012, threatening soybean yield potential and supporting prices despite forecast rains.
Forecast rains offered relief to crops despite the deepening drought, reducing the weather risk premium and pushing corn prices lower.
