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S&P Global published a factbox mapping how El Niño may affect crop yields and global food trade in 2023-24. It highlights expected Australian wheat output of 26.2 million mt, down 33.9% on the year, and above-average Argentine rains that could lift yields.
Lower Australian wheat supply would tighten global wheat availability and support prices, while stronger Argentine output would partly offset that. Feed buyers should expect firmer wheat and barley costs if the dryness materializes.
spglobal.comJun 16, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
