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NOAA says El Niño has strengthened, with a greater than 83% chance of a very strong event during January-March 2027. The agency says sea-surface anomalies exceeded 4°C in parts of the eastern Pacific in September.
ABARES forecasts Australian wheat output at 29.9 million tonnes, down 17% year on year.
A 17% fall in Australian wheat output removes exporter supply from the market and supports global wheat prices, with further risk from El Niño dryness in India and Southeast Asia.
spglobal.comSampad NandyOct 9, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
