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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr says the end of La Niña and a neutral ENSO phase, expected to persist into 2026, reduce odds of extreme weather. He projects a two-in-three chance that December 2025 corn trades between $4.40 and $5, and a worst case near $3.85, with soybeans likely at $9.90 to $11.15.
A neutral ENSO outlook lowers the probability of weather-driven supply shocks, which tends to cap rallies in corn and soybean futures and keeps feed costs range-bound.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrApr 21, 2025After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
