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North Dakota state climatologist Daryl Ritchison says headlines about a potential 'super El Niño' are overblown and do not change the northern Plains growing season outlook. He points to historical patterns and farm weather records to argue for limited impact.
Expert skepticism about strong El Niño impacts on northern Plains crops reduces the case for a weather premium in spring wheat and corn. The story mainly tempers alarmist headlines rather than adding new supply information.
agweek.comJenny SchlechtMar 23, 2026After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
