Rains returned to much of Europe after a wet September, with many regions receiving 50% or more above average rainfall. Winter cereal sowings are progressing well, while rapeseed sowings faced challenges from wetness, soil crusting in Poland and sowing outside optimal windows.
Good winter grain establishment supports EU wheat supply prospects, while delayed or poor rapeseed planting may tighten EU rapeseed supplies and support canola meal and vegetable oil prices.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.