
Summer-sown crop planting in India is lagging after below-normal monsoon rainfall, with planted area at 104.4 million hectares as of Aug. 20, down 1.6% year on year.
Cotton area is down 8.3% and Gujarat received 47% less rain than normal.
Lower Indian rice and cotton output could cut exports and lift imports of edible oils such as palm, sunflower and soy oil, supporting vegetable oil prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.