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Six major rice-producing Indian states have received monsoon rain well below normal through mid-July, with Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand deficits above 40%. Paddy sowing was down 8% year on year as of July 13.
A weak monsoon and lower planted area threaten India's rice output and exports, which would tighten global rice supply and support prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.