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India has received 15% less rainfall than normal since the monsoon began on June 1, with some rice-growing states up to 42% short. Rice output is set for its biggest drop in two decades, but large state stockpiles should let India keep exporting without restrictions.
A sharp domestic crop shortfall could tighten global rice supply, but large Indian stocks limit the risk of an export ban, so the price impact is likely moderate.
reuters.comRajendra JadhavSep 17, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
