
Private forecaster Skymet cut its India monsoon forecast to 92% of the long-period average, down from 100%, and expects a prolonged weak phase in August. The India Meteorological Department has forecast 97% rainfall, and the first half of the season was already 6% below normal.
A weak monsoon threatens Indian kharif crops such as rice and pulses, which could tighten Asian rice supplies and lift prices, while also raising domestic food inflation.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.