Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook

After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2017Erratic Monsoon Rains Threaten Key Indian Grain, Food Crops - AgriBusiness Global-1.8%
• May 29, 2026India Cuts Monsoon Outlook to 90% of Normal in Risk to Crops | Financial Post-1.7%
• Aug 1, 2018India's monsoon rain forecast cut, farm output seen at risk | The Star-8.4%
• Sep 30, 2023India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino+0.8%
• Aug 28, 2023India on track for lowest monsoon rains in 8 years -sources+6.2%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2017Erratic Monsoon Rains Threaten Key Indian Grain, Food Crops - AgriBusiness Global+0.4%
• Sep 30, 2023India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino-0.7%
• Aug 28, 2023India on track for lowest monsoon rains in 8 years -sources-1.8%
• Feb 27, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat hits seven-month high on crop ratings - Grainews+3.1%
• Oct 10, 2022Threat of food inflation looms as India grapples with delayed heavy rains+1.2%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2018Why the monsoon is so crucial for India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi-0.1%
• Oct 11, 2019Why strong monsoon rains are not necessarily good news for Indian farmers+4.8%
• Jul 25, 2022Heat takes bite out of corn, soybean and spring wheat crop condition ratings - Pro Farmer-9.5%
• Jul 2, 2020Corn holds near 3-1/2 month peak as crop outlook, demand assessed - Markets - Business Recorder-6.3%
• Jun 24, 2020Winter climate outlook hard to predict with mixed signals | Farm Online | ACT+0.3%