
Unseasonal heavy rain in India has damaged and reduced summer-sown crops such as rice, soybean, cotton and pulses, and has delayed wheat planting. October rainfall is forecast at 115% of the long-term average, and reports say about 150,000 paddy crops were damaged in Punjab.
Crop losses and harvest delays raise the risk of higher domestic food inflation and further export restrictions, which would tighten world rice and soymeal-related supplies.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.