
Patchy monsoon rains after a three-week stall are delaying sowing of rice, cotton and soybeans in India. Retail inflation is already above the central bank's 6% upper limit, and analysts warn that weak sowing could hurt yields.
Delayed and weak Indian sowing raises the risk of lower rice and soybean output and higher domestic prices, which can pull on export availability and global prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.