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Thai Rice Exporters Association warned of an uncertain second half of 2023 after India's export halt. The price of 5% white rice rose about $50 per tonne.
Indonesia and the Philippines have applied for quota-based Indian supplies, and El Niño drought is expected in 2023 and 2024.
Quota allocations and El Niño drought risk both point to tighter Asian rice supply, supporting higher export prices for importers.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.