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The Thai Rice Exporters Association cut its 2018 export growth target below 9.5% because of a strong baht and lower production. Thai government estimates put 2018 rice output at 30 million tonnes, down from 33 million in 2017.
Lower Thai output and weaker export competitiveness tighten global rice supply and could support rough rice prices, though Thai rice is a small share of feed use.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.