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Thailand faces a 61% probability of El Niño conditions from May to July 2026, with below-normal rainfall forecast. Malaysia and the Philippines are increasing rice purchases to build reserves, pushing Thai and Vietnamese prices above $400 per tonne.
El Niño drought risk and importer stockpiling tighten export supplies, supporting rice prices.
nationthailand.comMay 13, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
