
Malaysian palm oil futures rose 1.15% to a two-month high of 3,949 ringgit per tonne on Jan 23. The gain followed warnings of severe rain in Indonesia and Malaysia and steady Chinese demand, while Malaysia kept its February crude palm oil export tax at 8%.
Heavy rain threatens palm output in the two largest producers, which tightens supply and supports palm oil and related vegetable oil prices.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 18 past neutral weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +2.6% over 5 sessions (72% higher; middle half -0.4% to +3.5%), and +3.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.