
S&P Global forecasts Argentina and Brazil combined soybean crush to rise 15.3% to 92.1 million tonnes in 2024. The increase is driven by Argentina's crop recovery after the 2023 drought and a higher Brazilian biodiesel mandate.
Higher crush adds meal supply and lifts soyoil output, which typically pressures meal prices while supporting oil demand from biodiesel.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.