
Argentina's soy crush fell to 27 million tonnes in 2023 from 38 million in 2022, the lowest in 19 years, per the Rosario Board of Trade. Drought cut the harvest by over 56%, while record imports of 10.4 million tonnes cushioned the crush decline, and 54% of crush capacity sat idle.
Brazil overtook Argentina as the top soy oil and meal exporter.
A sharply smaller Argentine crush cuts global soymeal and soyoil export supply, supporting prices while Brazil fills the gap. Improved El Niño rainfall for 2023/24 points to a crop recovery that would eventually weigh on prices.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.