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The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine soybean estimate 14 percent, from 46.5 million tons to 40 million, but the futures market barely reacted. USDA forecasts Argentine production at 47 million tons.
Analyst Jamey Kohake expects the actual crop to land in the low 40 million range and says the cut is already priced in.
A roughly 6.5 million ton cut in Argentine supply would normally support soybean prices, but the market has absorbed it and is stuck in its trading range. Prices will need harvest yield results to move decisively.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampMar 16, 2018After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
