
Bunge CEO Gregory Heckman said Argentina's crushing industry faces a severe supply crunch as the 2022-23 soybean crop forecast falls from 44 million mt to 27 million mt. Crush is expected to fall below 30 million mt, and Platts assessed Argentine soymeal and soyoil FOB prices at $479.39/mt and $933.44/mt on May 3.
Argentina is the top exporter of soybean meal and oil, so a sharply smaller crush removes supply from world markets and tends to support meal and oil prices until the next harvest.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.