Argentina's crushing industry is at its lowest activity level of the century because of drought-related soybean shortages. Only 1.9 million tonnes were crushed in September, and the crush is not expected to restart until imported beans arrive in February 2024.
Idle crushing plants cut soymeal and soyoil output, tightening global supply and supporting soy product prices until imports arrive.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.