
Argentine soybean crushers have idled nearly 70% of capacity due to low soybean supplies after the worst crop in nearly 25 years. Farmers are holding stocks and selling slowly, with about 6 million tonnes of 2021/22 soybeans still unsold and 2022/23 output estimated at 27-28 million tonnes or lower.
Reduced crushing cuts soymeal and soybean oil output from the world's leading meal exporter, while farmer reluctance to sell tightens near-term soybean availability and supports prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.